I am going to wrap up my review of voting data from the 2011 municipal election, and draw some conclusions about the composition and likely behavior of the new Delta council.
The two councillors I haven't yet discussed are Sylvia Bishop and Bruce McDonald. Bishop came second to Ian Paton in the last byelection, but came second overall (again trailing Paton) in the 2011 general election. This indicates she would have won the by-election if she had run against anybody other than Paton.
She received broader support in November than Paton, whose base was more centered on South Delta. Indeed, Bishop took 14 per cent of the North Delta vote, and essentially tied for third place there with Jeannie Kanakos.
Bishop came in a strong second because she did very well in Tsawwassen, yet also polled well in both Ladner and North Delta. If this pattern of support persists, she would be well placed to run successfully for mayor should Lois Jackson ever decide to stand down.
McDonald has been on council for a long time, and could probably still get elected posthumously if his name were on the ballot. He drew exactly the same proportion of voters in each of the three municipalities (15 per cent in both Ladner and Tsawwassen; 16 per cent in North Delta).
He received 28 per cent more votes in South Delta than North Delta, since voting participation was higher in South Delta. Yet he came in third because he had no especially strong base of support anywhere. McDonald won only three of 31 polls (Sunshine Hills and Pinewood in North Delta; he tied Scott Hamilton in the mobile poll), but came in second or third in 24 polls.
He came in second or third in all the South Delta polls (typically second in Ladner and third in Tsawwassen), but he ranged from first to fifth in the North Delta polls.
I thought McDonald would be less popular in Tsawwassen since he was in charge of the disastrous Tsawwassen Area Plan process, but he didn't suffer much for it.
McDonald is electable to council since he is everybody's second or third choice in a situation where each elector has six votes, however he has not been a successful mayoral candidate since being second choice doesn't cut it where there's only one winner.
From the numbers, I conclude that Jackson, Hamilton, Robert Campbell and Kanakos were elected by North Delta, and don't need to rely on South Delta support. So, despite the fact that 32 per cent more South Deltans voted than North Deltans, four of the seven persons elected reside in, or have a political base in, North Delta. Bishop and Paton have political bases in South Delta, however Paton is aligned with the DIVA party whose other members (Jackson, Hamilton and Campbell) have support based in North Delta.
I think Paton and McDonald can be counted on to support Ladner interests (particularly agricultural ones), but only Bishop is clear on opposing development in Tsawwassen. The majority of the mayor and council could support development in Tsawwassen without excessive adverse political effect.
