I give him marks for confidence, but Adrian Dix surely must recognize that 18 months is an eternity in politics, particularly in this province.
When Dix addressed the NDP convention last weekend in Vancouver, he sounded a lot like a premier in waiting, outlining a game plan for the first term the New Democrats are in office.
Topping the opinion polls rightfully gives him reason for optimism, but discussion of the whole governing thing might be a tad premature given how much can change in such a short amount of time - as evidenced by the last 30 months in B.C.
It might seem like eons ago, but it's only been two-and-a-half years since voters gave Gordon Campbell's Liberals their third straight mandate. Since that time, we've seen highs (the Winter Olympics) and lows (the HST debacle), culminating with Campbell's departure, which was just over a year ago.
With Liberal fortunes headed in the wrong direction, and New Democrats needing only to sit back and watch the government unravel, they promptly fell on their own sword with a caucus revolt against Carole James.
After both parties held leadership contests, pundits concluded the Liberals had made out better, figuring a perpetually positive Christy Clark would be an easier sell to the masses than a not so warm and fuzzy Dix.
Initially, polling backed up that contention, but lately that hasn't been the case, with Dix and the NDP now enjoying a lead. However, the election isn't for another year-and-a-half, and when you think a year-and-a-half ago Campbell was basking in the Olympic glow and the HST hadn't even been implemented yet, you realize how much can change during that time.
That's not to say Dix doesn't ultimately become B.C.'s next premier, but you can bet the Liberals will be pulling out all the stops to prevent that from coming to fruition. In these uncertain economic times, it's all but assured he'll be painted as a tax-and-spend lefty the province's fragile economy can't afford.
There will be many ebbs and flows between now and May of 2013, so much so it's impossible to know who will be in the lead, and by how much, when the writ is dropped for the next provincial election. Dix may well require the Term 1 game plan he laid out for members last weekend or he might join that list of NDP leaders to have fallen short of getting the party to the promised land.
It's too early to tell. After all, a yearand-a-half is an eternity in B.C. politics.
