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Could Filip Zadina fall to the Canucks at seventh overall?

There is only one true certainty in the 2018 NHL Draft: the Buffalo Sabres will select Swedish defenceman Rasmus Dahlin first overall. That is 100% certain.
Filip Zadina at the CHL Top Prospects game

There is only one true certainty in the 2018 NHL Draft: the Buffalo Sabres will select Swedish defenceman Rasmus Dahlin first overall. That is 100% certain.

The second overall pick is nearly as certain, however, as it’s expected that the Carolina Hurricanes will take Russian winger Andrei Svechnikov. After that, it’s all up in the air. For most of the season, Czech winger Filip Zadina was battling with Svechnikov to go second overall. Now it’s uncertain whether he’ll even get picked in the top-five.

TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported in his latest draft rankings that the majority of the scouts he interviewed had bumped Zadina out of the third spot. In fact, half of them had Zadina outside the top-five, with one scout ranking him all the way down at ninth overall.

 

 

That’s a massive change. Looking at CanucksArmy’s consolidated draft rankings from late April, Zadina was firmly in the top-three, with his lowest ranking at fourth overall. It’s astonishing to see him drop so far in some scout’s estimation, particularly when you consider that very little hockey has been played in the past two months.

Is it possible that Zadina could fall far enough to be available to the Canucks with the seventh overall pick? Not long ago that would have sounded crazy, but now it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

There are a number of reasons why Zadina might fall. His performance at the draft combine was average, for what that’s worth. He’s a winger, and some teams might prize a centre or a defenceman instead. His team didn’t go very far in the QMJHL playoffs, giving other prospects more time in the spotlight to shine.

According to one scout interviewed by Mckenzie, “I don’t think Zadina necessarily did anything negative as much as so many others stepped up their game.”

That seems to jibe with Mckenzie’s updated rankings that have Brady Tkachuk ahead of Zadina at third overall. Tkachuk earned plaudits for his excellent performance at the World Junior Championship, which quieted those critical of his relative lack of production in the NCAA.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi steadily improved all season and made a surprise jump into the top-five of Mckenzie’s rankings, while Noah Dobson has charged up to sixth, partially thanks to a standout performance at the Memorial Cup.

If Zadina does fall, Kotkaniemi might be the biggest reason. There are rumours flying around that the Montreal Canadiens might take Kotkaniemi third overall, seeing him as the best centre in the draft. Centre is a massive need for the Canadiens and, if they see Kotkaniemi as a first-line centre in the vein of Anze Kopitar, they could talk themselves into passing up Zadina.

The question is whether the other teams ahead of the Canucks would also pass up Zadina.

The Ottawa Senators pick fourth and could certainly use the scoring help that Zadina would provide, but could also look to a puck-moving defenceman like Quinn Hughes, since Erik Karlsson will potentially leave in free agency after next season. There’s also a general consensus in Ottawa that they need more grit and toughness, so Brady Tkachuk might be an option for them as well.

After that, it’s the Arizona Coyotes and Detroit Red Wings, both of whom are expected to be looking for a defenceman. Is it crazy to think that the Coyotes and Red Wings would take some combination of Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, and Adam Boqvist ahead of Zadina?

Probably.

Let’s remember that Filip Zadina is an exceptional prospect. He scored 44 goals and 82 points in 57 games this season, finishing fifth in the QMJHL in goals and seventh in points. He was outstanding in the World Junior tournament, tallying seven goals and eight points in seven games.

Zadina is an outstanding goalscorer, combining fleet feet with an elite shot, but he’s also an underrated playmaker, who makes everyone around him better. He’s a thrilling player to watch, as he’s a threat to score or create an offensive chance every time he steps on the ice.

It’s hard to imagine four teams passing on a player like Zadina after Dahlin and Svechnikov are off the board, so it’s unlikely that Zadina will be available to the Canucks. If he is, however, it makes their decision with the seventh overall pick that much easier.

More importantly, if the Canadiens reach to take Kotkaniemi third overall, that will improve the chances of the Canucks getting their pick of Oliver Wahlstrom or one of the many top defencemen expected to go in the top-10.