Tsawwassen Rotarians got an in-depth take on the situation in the Ukraine last week.
The service club hosted Derek Fraser, a former Canadian ambassador to Ukraine, at its regular breakfast meeting last Thursday. Fraser, who has also been an ambassador to Greece and Hungary, represented Canada in the country from 1998 until 2001, and he acted as chief election observer for the Ukrainian congress during the 2012 election.
"A large number of pundits were surprised when their predictions that Russia would never move into Crimea were proved wrong," Fraser said. "Crimea might not be the end."
He said Russia's invasion of Crimea could just be a prelude to takeovers of the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, if not the entire country.
Ukraine was in talks to join NATO and to strengthen ties with the European Union last year when in late November former president Viktor Yanukovych's government announced it was abandoning those plans and seeking closer ties with Moscow.
Protesters took to the streets and faced off against police. In December, a protest attracted about 300,000 to Kyiv's Independence Square and activists took over Kyiv City Hall. The violent demonstrations saw many protesters injured, killed or jailed.
Yanukovych fled Kyiv in February and the Ukrainian parliament voted to remove him from office, putting an interim government in place. However, on March 1, Russian troops moved into Crimea to take over the region.
Fraser said that since February's revolution, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian spokesmen have made it clear they consider the new government as illegitimate and have called for Yanukovych to be reinstated as head of a coalition government.
Putin also gave himself legislative authority to intervene militarily anywhere in Ukraine allegedly in support of Russian speakers, he said.
The new Ukrainian government and parliament has ignored warnings from Russia, announced its intention of signing on with the EU and registered a bill aimed at joining NATO.
"For these and other reasons, the two countries are on a collision course," Fraser said. "Ukraine is incapable of defending itself. Russia has renewed its military maneuvers on Ukraine's borders. Russian agents are trying to stir up revolt in Ukraine's other Russian speaking regions."
Fraser said he would not be surprised to see Russia take over other areas of Ukraine in the near future. For the moment, he said, Russia is laying off but will start again.
"It has been a policy of Russia for a long time to prevent Ukraine from aligning with the West and getting democracy," he said. For its part, Western countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. Fraser called the sanctions "very mild" and said they will have little effect. However, he said he is unsure what the West could do.
"Since Ukraine's security depends on a stable and cooperative relationship between Russia and the West, it is important that some effort along these lines be made."
