So ... will a new bridge replace the George Massey Tunnel?
Our mayor says without it commuter traffic will be "devastating." Wonder if anybody listens?
Those who decide these things likely consider the region's needs, not just ours. Should costly new bridge construction serve a small community voicing an urgent need ... or benefit the largest possible regional population? And don't forget; someone must pay for it.
I Googled 10 major crossings: Lions Gate, Iron Workers, Laing, Oak, Knight, Massey, Alex Fraser, Pattullo, Port Mann and Golden Ears. Their year of completion varies from 1936 (Pattullo) to 2009 (Golden Ears). They range from three lanes (Lions Gate) to four, five (Mann) and six (Fraser, Iron Workers and Golden Ears).
There is a 10-lane replacement for the Port Mann under construction and it seems likely the Pattullo may also be replaced. It's the oldest, has dangerously narrow lanes and has had many accidents.
In 2006, the Ministry of Transportation recorded four-lane crossing weekday traffic volumes averaging from 74,600 vehicles (Pattullo) to 99,677 (Knight). The tunnel's average was 88,673, but five years later in 2011 its average had decreased to 87,239. Would 1,700 additional Deltaport truck trips be significant?
Morning and evening weekday peak hour averages (4,939 and 4,850) were higher but of noticeably shorter duration than those of the four-lane bridges. Massey's counterflow operation, spreading the peaks over three lanes rather than two, renders them similar to those of the bridges.
Golden Ears is the first modern Lower Mainland test of tolls, and early results are worrisome. Tolls, initially of $2.95 (cars) and $10.05 (trucks), are expected to repay construction costs of $808 million plus interest.
Usage is disappointing; 29,500 vehicles per day compared with the other two six-lane bridges, both toll-free, recording 117,000 and 127,000.
Will drivers shun toll bridges? The Port Mann replacement will also charge tolls to repay construc-tion costs of perhaps $2 billion. As would a Pattullo replacement costing $800 million. If users don't pay, guess who gets stuck with the bill ... and with "devastating" traffic at any free crossings.
So how does a tunnel replacement project stack up in the competition for funding? It's at least behind Pattullo and, if user tolls prove unworkable, completely out of luck until some other funding source is agreed.
If there were money, would a tunnel replacement be the place to invest? South Delta has less than two per cent of the region's population. One wonders: Would politicians squander a huge capital project on only two per cent of their electorate?
Pending South Fraser Perimeter Road completion, South Delta lacks convenient access to alternative river crossings, but South Surrey and White Rock commuters have a choice. They can either use Highway 99 through the tunnel or Highway 91 over the six-lane Alex Fraser. Does their decision to join the lineup through the tunnel suggest the tunnel isn't so bad?
I know this won't lessen frustration with tunnel traffic. It might, however, invite useful discussion about why tunnel replacement could be neither soon, nor likely.
