I'm not so sure I'd bet against it now.
There has long been speculation that a casino would form part of the development that's beginning to take shape on Tsawwassen First Nation land, although whenever they were asked whether such an undertaking was in the cards, TFN officials stuck to the line about gaming not being part of the current plan.
They were careful not to close the door to the idea entirely, but it was hard to doubt the sincerity of the stance when a casino was conspicuously absent from plans for the TFN's retail/entertainment zone, which is slated to include a hotel and a pair of mega-malls. A lucrative gambling component seemed like a natural fit in such a destination complex, but there didn't appear to be much appetite for one.
That could all change, however, given the events that have transpired over the last couple of weeks. Stinging from the rejection of a casino-hotel-convention centre proposal by civic politicians in Surrey, the province, by way of the B.C. Lottery Corporation, is looking for a new landing spot for the project.
BCLC's president went as far as to identify Tsawwassen as one of the possible sites being considered south of the Fraser River, an area that apparently is underserved by the gaming industry.
When government officials come knocking at your door - presuming that will happen soon if it hasn't already - the TFN would be foolish not to hear them out. They'll arrive with an attractive, ready-made proposal, one that can breeze through the approval process with almost none of that annoying public consultation that derailed the efforts in Surrey.
More than that, however, the TFN would have to take a long look at the proposal because this could well be a now-or-never kind of situation. If the First Nation decides against a casino at this time for whatever reason, there is the distinct possibility the door might close on the idea permanently.
Should one be built somewhere else south of the river in the next year or two, the market might not support an additional casino should the TFN decide the time is right five or 10 years from now. Or perhaps the province wouldn't be willing to provide another licence at that time if it thought such a move would saturate the market.
That's all hypothetical at this point, and could hinge on where another casino ends up being located, but it's got to give TFN leaders reason to pause. It might even be enough motivation to get them to roll the dice.
