So, do we really need more houses? If we need more houses, it must only be to accommodate realistically anticipated population growth, not just to engorge developers' pocketbooks, though that might be an unintended consequence.
Delta has committed to goals for population growth. They're not based on Delta's or Tsawwassen's needs, but provide instead for B.C.'s anticipated additional residents. B.C.'s projected annual population growth is a net sum of arriving and departing international and Canadian migrants plus the net of births minus deaths.
B.C. Statistics has data. During the year ending June 30, 2010, there was an estimated B.C. population increase of 48,000 resulting from international immigration and 9,400 from inter-provincial migration. During the same year there were approximately 44,500 births and 31,200 deaths for a net population increase of 13,300.
Immigration and inter-provincial migration net yearly increases are projected to be reasonably constant for decades. The annual increase resulting from births exceeding deaths - 20 per cent of the 2010 total - is projected to decrease and by 2027 become an ongoing net population loss.
International immigrants arriving in B.C., it seems, generate the most significant need for more houses. The underlying reasons for international immigration to B.C. are positive. We live in a prosperous corner of a prosperous country; a prosperity that others wish to share. Very few immigrants are refugees; most are skilled workers, entrepreneurs and their families.
So how does this affect Tsawwassen? The Southlands proposal renders growth an issue. We should determine if we want and can reasonably accommodate a share of B.C.'s growth before deciding if the Southlands is the place for it. Conflicting TFN plans for new housing frustrates an informed decision. Will they actually build 4,100, 3,185, 800 or only 24 units?
Delta is a signatory of Metro Vancouver's Regional Growth Strategy, which sets population growth goals for its members.
Delta has agreed to a 2011-2031 population increase goal of 18 per cent. A recent staff report to Delta council projects Tsawwassen's population to increase by 2,946 between 2011and 2031, which is 14 per cent. These increases seem remarkable; between 2001 and 2011, Delta grew only three per cent and Tsawwassen just 0.5 per cent.
How many houses do 2,946 people require? It depends on the type. Single-family homes, on average, accommodate more people than do townhouses or apartments. At Tsawwassen's current housing type mix, that's about 1,200 dwellings.
As the proportion of smaller dwellings increases, the number could be 2,000 or more. Don't forget, 490 dwellings already authorized at Tsawwassen Springs are part of this increase.
Can we accommodate this population increase? Peak traffic on 56th Street might be the critical determinant. Based on a Delta 2010 traffic study, and with modest TFN development, I suspect we can ... just barely. Traffic would get markedly worse but intersection upgrades wouldn't become critical until after 2031.
So, whose needs will guide councillors' decision: Tsawwassen's, Delta's or B.C.'s? Will they simply apply 950 Southlands dwellings toward the 2011-2031 commitment or will they decide whether Tsawwassen really needs any more houses?
