Editor:
Re: T2 is required to handle growing Canadian trade, letter to the editor, Dec. 12
Cliff Stewart's rebuttal of Roger Emsley's contention that there's no justification for the Terminal 2 expansion at Roberts Bank again gives us no facts or figures.
To date we have seen very little documentation to support the Port Metro Vancouver business case and forecast to justify this massive project.
If you run the numbers and analyze the Ocean Shipping Consultant forecast document, you can see the business case is a maze of information and statistical analysis. A lot of this documentation seems to be irrelevant.
The focus of the forecast should be on current and future GDP growth projections for Canada over the next 20 years. Canada's average GDP growth rate for the past five years is about 2.5 per cent.
The forecasted GDP growth rate for Canada has been downgraded from 2.5 to two per cent for 2015. Therefore one might think that Port Metro Vancouver would use a 2.5 per cent compounded growth rate for future container growth requirements.
Unfortunately, this is not the case as it has chosen an annual compounded growth rate of between six and seven per cent. This is absurd as I have yet to hear of any economist or consultant forecasting these kind of numbers for growth in the Canadian economy.
Yes, there are other factors to be considered, like larger container ships and larger container configurations. However, these logistical changes can be easily handled within the existing footprint, but might also include loading dock modification and use of TFN land for increased infrastructure, rail and storage facilities.
It is time for Port Metro Vancouver to stop the spin and give us the facts. It obviously won't comply as everyone will then see there is no justification for T2.
However, if you want to see an accurate forecast and documentation, visit www.againstportexpansion.org.
Don Paulsen
